Predicting NFL's Most Surprising 2023 Rookie Gems

May 18, 2023

Many of the players selected in the early rounds of the 2023 NFL draft are projected to be major contributorsfrom the get-go, while expectations for the prospects who were taken in the latter stagesof the event are much lower.

While they may not be as athletically gifted or have as many collegiate accolades under their belts as some of their Day 1 contemporaries, there are always a handful of late-Day 2 and 3 picks who outperform their modest outlooks. That shouldn't change in 2023, as there are already several players who are standing out for their potential to become surprise rookie contributors.

Whether they landed with a team that should maximize their talents orhave little competition for a key role, these five players have a real chance tobecome Year 1 gems while vastly outperforming their draft slot.

The Cincinnati Bengals added a new dimension to their backfield with the selection of Illinois' Chase Brown. Although the running back didn't come off the board until the fifth round—becoming the 10th player at his position to be picked this year—Brown has what it takes to become a key piece of Cincinnati's explosive offense from the jump and is a perfect fit on the roster.

The Bengals needed to unearth a suitable backup for Joe Mixon, as well as a player who could also work as a third-down and pass-catching option following Samaje Perine's free-agency defection. Perine had been a fixture in Cincy over the last three seasons, accumulating 941 yards and six touchdowns on 213 totes and picking up another 549 yards and five scores on 76 receptions. After playing just 27 percent or fewer of the offensive snaps during his first two seasons with the club, Perine's role expanded to over 40 percent of the offensive plays last year.

That workload now looks to be Brown's for the taking. His main competition for touches will come from Traveyon Williams—who has just 47 carries across his first four NFL seasons—and Chris Evans, who saw an already small role further reduced last season. Mixon will start the year as the backfield's go-to option, but the 26-year-old is coming off a relatively poor 2022 season, one in which he failed to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards despite playing in at least 14 games for the first time since he was a rookie. Mixon's 3.9 yards per carry average could be indicative of a decline, a regression that may open the door for Brown to assume even more volume than his predecessor.

Given his explosiveness, size and ability to wear down defenses, Brown should feature heavily in Cincinnati's 2023 plans as a high-volume backup. If he fares well as a rookie, it would hardly be a shock to see the grinder step into a starting role as early as next season, a move that would allow the Bengals to part ways with Mixon and free up some much-needed cap space.

The defending Super Bowl champions made a great value pick at No. 250 overall, snagging a quality cornerback in Ball State's Nic Jones near the tail end of the draft. The Kansas City Chiefs have done extremely well unearthing serviceable late-round defensive backs during the Andy Reid era and Jones could be the next unheralded talent to play a major role for this club.

While Jones may not be a lock to start right away, he should be in the mix for a depth role behind Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams—the latter three were all Day 3 picks as well—in training camp. Although the Chiefs did tap another corner in Chamarri Conner with a fourth-round pick this year, Jones has the tools to become the position's breakout talent of the preseason.

The 21-year-old's build (he stands a solid but unspectacular six-foot, 189 pounds) and athletic abilities may not jump off the page, but he knows how to utilize his long arms—they measured over 32 inches at the combine—to his advantage and flashes strong coverage skills. Jones secured three interceptions and defensed 15 passes during his final two seasons with the Cardinals.

The rookie should be a solid contributor from the jump on special teams. If Jones can hone his tackling work and tighten up his mechanics with some pro coaching, he'll quickly climb the depth chart in Kansas City.

The Green Bay Packers went into the 2023 draft with the goal of overhauling an underwhelming tight end room. They accomplished this by not only selecting Luke Musgrave in the second round, but also bringing in Tucker Kraft later on Day 2. Although Musgrave may have cost a more valuable draft selection to acquire, Kraft could actually end up becoming Green Bay's breakout rookie tight end.

Musgrave was arguably the most high-upside tight end prospect on the board this year, but he's been plagued by injuries, which severely limited the amount of reps he earned at Oregon State. He managed to participate in just 20 games during his four seasons in Corvallis, capping out with 22 catches for 304 yards and a single touchdown as a redshirt sophomore in 2021.

While Musgrave tantalized scouts with a mix of 6'6", 253-pound size and superb athleticism—he ran a 4.61 40-yard dash and jumped 36 inches vertically at the combine—his extensive injury history, which includes an MCL tear that cost him most of the 2022 season, and inexperience could lead to a slow start at a position that is notoriously difficult to make a quick transition to in the pros.

Kraft is the more pro-ready of the two tight ends Green Bay drafted this year. He began dominating South Dakota State's opponents during a breakout 2021 season, racking up 65 catches for 773 yards and six scores. While an ankle injury limited him out of the gate last year, he still managed to put up 348 yards and three touchdowns on 27 receptions.

With a versatile set of skills that include both blocking and receiving abilities in equal measure, Kraft should be ready to see the field regularly starting in Week 1. The big 6'5", 254-pounder will quickly establish himself as new starting quarterback Jordan Love's safety valve, a role that should result in some impressive numbers as a rookie.

With an unenviable quarterback situation and several other question marks at critical positions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in for a trying 2023 campaign. A poor first half could lead to the Bucs becoming sellers at the trade deadline, with several members of their star-studded receiving corps likely to be a popular target for contending teams to poach.

Dealing away Mike Williams or Chris Godwin would open the door for rookie sixth-round pick Trey Palmer to shine. While Palmer will open the year well behind these established stars in the pecking order, he would get plenty of run if a trade or injuries clear a path.

Despite track star speed and world-class athleticism, Palmer slipped to Day 3 because of his raw receiving skills and spotty production. Still, there's little question that the Nebraska product has the potential to develop into an elite talent with some refinement and more experience under his belt.

Palmer was a five-star recruit who initially played at LSU but didn't break out until last year, tallying over 1,000 yards and scoring nine touchdowns on 71 receptions during his lone season with the Cornhuskers. He improved his stock at the combine by running a blistering 4.33-second 40-yard dash and showing he has enough size to battle most NFL defensive backs after measuring in at six-foot, 192 pounds.

The 22-year-old could quickly return more than expected on a sixth-round investment. He's likely to be the team's primary kick returner and get a few field-stretching offensive plays each week at a minimum, but what truly separates him from other developmental wideouts is the potential for a sharp uptick in volume should the Bucs decide to embrace a rebuilding effort.

The New York Jets were stunned when the Pittsburgh Steelers jumped ahead of them and snatched Broderick Jones during the 2023 draft. After missing out on the offensive lineman who they were eying with the No. 15 overall pick, Gang Green ultimately elected not to address the tackle position until Day 3. Despite missing out on Jones, the Jets still landed a potential piece to build around in Carter Warren.

The Pittsburgh product has the look of an NFL offensive tackle, standing over 6'5" tall and tipping the scales at 311 pounds. While his technique isn't as polished as many of the offensive linemen who were taken ahead of him during the initial two days of the draft, Warren's massive wingspan and quick hands will allow him to find success at the next level.

Warren may be one of the older prospects in the class at 24, but that experience will give him a leg up in carving out a role early in his career. New York may not be ready to trust him protecting their quarterback's blind side on a full-time basis, but it would be surprising if he isn't elevated to the team's swing tackle role by the time camp wraps. That job might end up being a steppingstone to a more prominent gig later in the campaign.

The issues surrounding New York's incumbent offensive tackles could result in Warren's promotion. Mekhi Becton has had significant injury woes over the last few years and Duane Brown is in the twilight of his career, as he'll be 38 years old at the start of the 2023 campaign. The pressure is amplified this season too, as the Jets cannot afford any protection problems after acquiring Aaron Rodgers.

The blockbuster trade for the future Hall of Famer has opened a small championship window that New York must take full advantage of. Having the 39-year-old quarterback go down with an injury because of inadequate offensive line play could see that window slam shut. If any of Gang Green's tackles go down or are underperforming in 2023, this coaching staff should have little hesitation pushing Warren into the mix.